xClaim · Spatial Analysis

Where crosses come from, where they arrive, and xClaim by both

TabPFN v3 xClaim model, full career history (232,598 crosses, MLS + NWSL, 2013–2026), drawn to real pitch scale. The destination grid tiles exactly the 18-yard box; the origin grid tiles everything outside it (shallower than the box, or level with it but wide) without overlapping the box itself. Both sides of the pitch are shown -- nothing is folded/mirrored. Cells with fewer than 5 crosses (fewer than 3 in the conditional grid) are empty -- too little data to trust.

Destination: arrival location inside the box

Mean predicted xClaim by exactly where the cross's flight path crosses into/through the 18-yard box.

Origin: where the cross was struck from

Mean predicted xClaim by cross origin. The grey box shape is the actual 18-yard box (no crosses originate inside it by definition) -- everything shaded is a real, non-overlapping cell.

Arrival xClaim, conditioned on origin zone

Click an origin zone to see where crosses from that zone tend to arrive in the box, and the resulting xClaim.

Origin zone (click to select)

Select an origin zone

low
high (≥50%)
Data: American Soccer Analysis-derived event data (ASA) · Model: TabPFN v3 · xClaim analysis · Pitch drawn to FIFA regulation scale (105m × 68m, 16.5m box, 5.5m six-yard box)